A Battle For Regional Supremacy
The gap between Newcastle and Sunderland has grown to six points in the Premier League table, but it will only get bigger as these two bitter rivals appear to be heading in opposite directions.
Sunderland's derby win might be explained as a flukey one off by the most stubborn United fan, a rare cause for celebration on Wearside, an aberration, but there was nothing lucky about it. Sunderland were the better side and deserved their first home win over the old enemy in 28 years. As things stand, they won't have to wait nearly as long for their next one. The end of January at St James's Park perhaps?
The Black Cats look like a club on the up, they have built up momentum over the past two years and, although they still look short in certain areas and will probably finish somewhere in mid-table, they look like a stronger club on the whole, well run by chairman Niall Quinn and superbly managed by Roy Keane without any boardroom interference.
Sunderland's win on Saturday felt like it symbolised a major shift in the balance of power in North East football, at least until Newcastle get rid of the now defunct Mike Ashley regime.
In contrast, Newcastle have no momentum whatsoever, they are a club in limbo and until Ashley sells up they will tread water at best, sink at worst. Interim manager Joe Kinnear has brought some fighting spirit to the dressing room, but he is working with limited resources and he knows it.
He has done a decent job in difficult circumstances so far and a derby defeat does not change that, but he needs a win, not battling draws to keep the Magpies out of trouble. Tuesday night's game against West Brom desperately needs to be won.
Kevin Keegan knew this squad would struggle this season - particularly if they were unlucky with injuries - and he got out before he had to try another damage limitation exercise like last season. The only way Newcastle can move on and develop as a football club is if Ashley and his cronies are removed from power. If that doesn't happen until after the close of the January transfer window, I fear for the future.
Personally, I'd still argue that, man for man, if both teams sent out their first-choice 11, Newcastle's would be superior on paper, but there is no doubt Sunderland's squad has more depth and variety than the alarmingly small one Kinnear inherited at St James's Park.
If Ashley does not find a buyer he will have to invest to head off the threat of relegation, but it's far from certain that he will, particularly as the January window never offers value for money to the buyer. Ashley will realise he has to protect his investment, he will not be able to sell a Championship club for £300m but he appears to have buried his head in the sand. Hopefully JFK can dig it out again if he is still in charge.
Best case scenario. Ashley sells to slightly eccentric, but incredibly ambitious billionaire who wants to turn Newcastle into one of the biggest clubs in Europe and is willing to provide the funds to do just that. Worst case scenario, Ashley can't sell, but still won't spend, it doesn't bare thinking about what might happen then.
Talking of Ashley, I wonder whether he has finally realised the monumental blunder he made by siding with Derek Llambias and Dennis Wise during the transfer policy row last month.
He felt his management structure was the best way to push the club forward, I suspect, because that was what his close friend Daniel Levy was doing at Spurs. So what does Ashley think now that Levy has disbanded that structure to appoint the manager Newcastle initially wanted to replace Sam Allardyce, Harry Redknapp. Levy has admitted his mistake, Ashley has not been man enough to do the same. It says a lot.
As for Sunderland, if Keane signs his new contract and continues to receive the same sort of financial backing he got in the summer, there is absolutely no reason why his team will not go on to challenge for a European place next season.
Finally, some of you will remember I predicted a 2-1 Sunderland win before the game, a prediction that prompted me to be branded a "Mackem" at the Stadium of Light. Everyone knows I'm not and never have been a supporter of either North East club, but the intensity of derby day does funny things to people.
As for my wonderful knowledge of the game, I should point out I failed to put any money on such an outcome so I'm not as clever as I like to make out eh?!
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Luke Edwards - is Chief Sports Writer of The Journal and uses his blog to give a unique and entertaining insight into events at Newcastle United and Sunderland.
ahh? to much truth in it to publish luke? lol-is that really a blog then? hmmm....will have to see what we can do about this........
What do you mean Bob? Did you lose your comment as you went to post it on the site or are you referring to the Live Web chat problems? I don't censor comments at all unless there is bad language or it's legally dubious.
Anyway, as I guide to everyone. If you copy the test (ctrl and c) before you go to post it, even if you lose it, you can go back to comment page, paste it back into the box (ctrl and v) and try again. It will work eventually, although I admit it is fairly annoying when you do lose it
Luke, Your analysis of the general situation is spot on. Truth is that Sunderland were unlucky not to win by a 3 or 4 goal margin. I don't totally agree with all this blame Ashley stuff because Toon have been sliding down the slope for long time. Also I agree that Roy Keane’s men will probably hand out a thumping in the return match, especially with Jones fully fit by then. The regional spremacybattle has already been decided.
WBA will fight very hard tomorrow night, and from the highlights I saw they were far from being lucky on Saturday. My expectation is that it will be a draw with 0-0 most likely. If it is worse than that then bottom place beckons and recovery will become unlikely.
Good part for Toon supporters is that some lucky team will probably survive this season with a record low number of points. It could well be Toon versus Fulham for that honour.
I can't disagree with your piece, Luke. I think Newcastle's performance was like so many have been in the past few years in that even half chances were too few and far between. I wouldn't say we're toothless, the teeth are there it's just that they barely get a bite, which makes it even more imperative that they're converted.
I'm not saying that we have a potent strikeforce either mind, but if we actually created some decent, and more importantly, regular chances then the law of averages says we'll score a few more goals. This is why the return of Jonas and Barton is crucial to our current predicament.
Barton impressed me more than any other player on Saturday - but I would've had him on at half time given Butt's injury. It's one thing sticking with Butt when 100% fit, but not carrying an injury when there were three good players on the bench who would've given us more mobility and creativity in N'Zogbia, Jonas & Barton. I'd keep him out of our defensive third, his tackling's a liability. He must have directly caused at least three vital goals this season already through stupid penalties and free kicks.
In my opinion, without Jonas flying every game, we can't get out of a relegation battle with two centre midfielders who don't get out of the middle third. They don't even keep the ball which is surely their main priority when in possession.
WBA will do a Bolton tomorrow, so we need to score early. As such, Jonas and Barton must start and N'Zogbia must get some game time if Duff isn't effective.
You are dead right Luke, the fault lies in the History, the Town didn't become a bad team overnight, and AShley's plan was generic and not thought through so when it didn't have the overnight impact he expected he didn't have a plan B, the supports decided KK was plan B, but he wasn't isn't and never will be. He ran away again, you hit the nail on the head. The 2-1 scoreline flattered N'castle. Look at Sunderland solid managment, long term business plan and expected stability. Money was made available some may say not always well spent but some great buys. As for the Town being better on paper, on Saturdays performance only Duff and Collicini would make their side. The simply reality is there is no God given right to success it must be earned through intelligence and hard work. Sunderland got to where they are through the sweat on the brow of Keane & Quinn, and the players who believe in them and that's a fact
I agree with the general gist of the piece but think you are wrong when you say that Newcastle have stronger team on paper. Given, Beye, Butt and Owen are very good players when fit, but Ferdinand, Collins (who has been a revelation), McCartney, Richardson, Malbranque and Cisse (or Jones) are all very good players who are better than their current counterparts. One crucial factor is that those Sunderland players are either at their peak or approaching it while Given, Butt and Owen are all past their best and prone to injuries.
I hope that Newcastle stay in the league because derbies are important part of football, but I think that a bit of reality and humility is required at the moment. They are a poor team and certainly not "too good to go down". The longer that the Ashley circus drags on, the worse it gets.
A battle for regional supremacy??? For 1 nanosecond I thought I was reading about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Regional supremacy??? Fascinating!!! More like your local Spar shop competing with Tesco (i.e. Man Utd, Chelsea etc) - Luke can you spot the irony???
I've always prefered to shop at Sainsbury's, who remind me a bit of Newcastle. Have some quality goods and should be the market leader, but they recruited an irritating mockney (Jamie Oliver) and they are still way off Tescos and Asda!
Why are comments being censored?
And don't say it must've been rejected. I posted twice and it was accepted the second time.
So, why the censorship?
Dr Mr Restless,
I do not get to see the comments before they go on line anymore as it is done by somebody else. I'll ask for you though as I honestly haven't seen any comments from you recently. However, if you want to ask me a question directly I'll be doing another of my weekly web chats at 12pm today (Tuesday) I'll be on line for an hour or so and it would be good to hear your thoughts.
I guess I should have read this last week Luke.
It's too easy to point out how wrong your presumptions were now, but hardly fair of me :)
That said it is very true that the two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions. ;)
Where as the Derby was a disappoinment to all Black & White, we should be proud that our local rivals took 28 years (I was in infant school that year, playing with plasticine and Hula hoops) to beat us in front of their home crowd. The after-goal pitch invasion was a bit like a throw back to the 70's too. :p
If it takes another 28 years I'll be a very happy man.