Derby Day Tension

That's the problem with derby day, the sheer stomach-churning fear of losing often sours the rest of the occasion. Even victory brings relief rather than joy.

For the Black Cats, the biggest problem with being the favourites is they know it will sting even more than usual if they fall flat on their face and lose the game.

Given the turmoil at Newcastle this season, Sunderland will know they may not have a better opportunity to dish out a beating to the swaggering hoards of Tyneside for some time to come.

It is amazing really that Sunderland have not beaten their bitter local rivals on home turf since April 1980 when a solitary goal from Stan Cummins brought them victory in front of more than 41,000 people at Roker Park.

The Wearsiders have had cause for wild celebration since, but it has always come on their travels. The Division Two play off final second leg in 1990, a 2-1 win in the rain at St James's Park in 1999 which led to Ruud Gullit's resignation and again in 2001 - my first North East derby experience - when Thomas Sorenson saved Alan Shearer's late penalty to secure another 2-1 triumph.

Happy days indeed for those in red and white, but little more than memories now and fading fast. Newcastle, who can still crow about their 4-1 win at the Stadium of Light in 2006, have not had to sample the anguish of losing to their fiercest rivals for seven years which means there are some Newcastle fans, albeit the very young ones, who have no idea what it feels like to lose this game.

Had this match been played a couple of weeks ago, I couldn't have predicted anything other than a Sunderland win. Newcastle were, before the shock appointment of Joe Kinnear, in complete disarray and heading for the Championship.

But Kinnear has given the dressing room a much-needed lift and injected some of the fighting spirit which made his name during nine years at Wimbledon. Newcastle have some good players and they are starting to show it, but Sunderland's squad has been significantly improved over the summer and they will feel the two squads are pretty evenly matched on paper.

As a result it will be close, perhaps too close to call. Newcastle will fight Sunderland every step of the way and in players like Obafemi Martins and Jonas Gutierrez they have explosive match-winners who can change the complexion of a game in a flash.

But, and I've been wrong many times before when it comes to making these sorts of predictions, I'm still going to go for a narrow Sunderland victory even though the missus has already reprimanded me for daring to suggest as much in our house!