One Of Them Will Go...

By Luke Edwards on Apr 14, 09 11:50 AM

I've been called many things in my time, but Nostradamus has never been one of them so I generally try and steer clear of making predictions when it comes to football results, safety targets and so on.

However, with six games left to play and with the North East supplying three of the bottom four teams in the Premier League, it does not take a clairvoyant to tell you that at least one, and quite possibly two, of the region's big three will be playing in the Championship next season.

The real question is who, because Newcastle's point at Stoke may have been a step in the right direction, but it was not the big one Middlesbrough made with their win over Hull City, yet neither was it the slip Sunderland suffered with a home defeat by Manchester United.

Whatever way you look at it, this has been a dreadful season for North East football. Not only that, but it has been one which makes a mockery of all the hope and excitement flying around last summer when Kevin Keegan and Roy Keane were knocking around in the dugout and Newcastle and Sunderland were the emerging forces in English football.

What tickles me - metaphorically speaking of course - is that Newcastle and Sunderland were desperately trying to push season tickets sales this time 12 months ago because they were worried about falling attendances so what sort of state are they in now when neither club is certain of their top flight future? Worrying times in the boardroom as well as on the terraces.

Newcastle's players, supporters and managers have been keen to make a lot of positive noise about the point at Stoke and, having watched the game in the pub as part of my birthday celebrations, it did feel as though something had shifted in their favour when Andy Carroll somehow managed to divert Damien Duff's cross in.

Yet, when you look at the table the draw, while averting disaster, did not haul the likes of Blackburn, Hull and Portsmouth back into immediate danger, while Sunderland were also able to stay out of the drop zone.

Once again, for all of the battling qualities, commitment, desire and, at times sheer and utter desperation, Newcastle failed to win an away game against another team in the bottom half of the table. Like Hull, like Bolton, like Blackburn, like Sunderland....

So what does that mean? Well, we've been saying it for weeks, but it's plain and simple now really. Newcastle will have to win at least three of their remaining six games to stay up which makes the home games against Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Fulham critical.

Anything else the Magpies can pick up on their travels at Tottenham, Liverpool and Aston Villa will be a bonus, but when you look at their away record and when you look at how few points they have picked up against teams who are vastly inferior to the above, it still doesn't look good does it?

Without the luxury of a crystal ball - not that they work anyway - I can't see any other outcome other than Newcastle travelling to Aston Villa on the last day of the season needing something from the game. Tense doesn't do that prospect justice.

As for Sunderland, their must win games will come at home to Hull next weekend and away at West Bromwich Albion the week after that.

Six points from those and Ricky Sbragia can move quietly back into coaching knowing he did not make a complete and utter mess of his first - and quite possibly only - manager's job.

Should the Black Cats fail to do that, however, they will know they are in trouble. Home games against Everton and Chelsea are tough to say the least, while the trips to Bolton and Portsmouth will be desperate affairs.

Sunderland's players showed they can play a containing game against Manchester United, but more is going to be needed from them between now and the end of May.

As depressing as it is to say it, I cannot see any other outcome than one of them dropping back into the Championship next season, it may even still be both if Boro get their act together...