Relegation Might Be A Good Thing, Possibly, Maybe...Perhaps...
There is a school of thought, an outlandish view for many, but one which has attracted new disciples in recent weeks. Relegation would actually be a good for thing for Newcastle United.
Given the financial implosion it could cause and the long term damage it could do to the club, it is a viewpoint littered with risks and fraught with danger, but perhaps it is not as crazy as you think.
For example, if I could guarantee every Newcastle supporter out there that United would go down to the Championship for one season, and one season only, would it be such a terrible, repugnant and wretched outcome?
Of course, I have absolutely no way of providing such a guarantee and neither does Mike Ashley, Alan Shearer or anyone else come to think of it.
If Newcastle go down they could stay down for years, they might even follow Leeds United - who had 35,000 people at their play-off semi-final against Millwall last week - into League One.
As much as I'd love to see Newcastle playing Leyton Orient at Brisbane Road in 2010, I really don't think that's a league fixture anyone on Tyneside would want, accept maybe the odd Sunderland fan, although I reckon even they'd miss the intensity of the North East derby.
However, one season in the Championship might not be such a bad thing. Lots of different grounds to visit, new teams to begrudgingly admire or despise, the whole thing could be a refreshing change.
A year's break from the relentless poundings handed out by Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool and a little time away from the same old teams in the Premier League with the same old faces.
The Premier League might be the best league in the world, the most exciting, but as Kevin Keegan once said, it is also the most predictable and therefore the most boring because the same four teams finish in the top four positions year after year after year.
It is a juxtaposition Keegan was frustrated by long before he spat his dummy out and walked out on the club in protest at its transfer strategy four months later.
It would also, in theory, give Newcastle a chance to detox, to clear out the dead wood, to get its house in order, whatever you want to call it.
There are too many over-paid, over-rated players on the books at St James's Park and relegation would mean there was no option but to get rid of them in vast numbers.
If Newcastle went down, Michael Owen, Mark Viduka, Cacapa, Geremi, Fabricio Coloccini, Jonas Guteirrez, Alan Smith, Joey Barton, Jose Enrique and Obafemi Martins would all be expected to leave. They could well be joined by Habib Beye and Sebastien Bassong, although I would expect Shearer to fight to keep them.
By my reckoning, even if United keep Beye and Bassong, that would save the club around £600,000 a week in wages, or if you prefer, £31.2m a year, which is almost 50% of the current wage bill. That, I should point out, is based on a conservative estimate.
Granted that doesn't leave much behind to work with in terms of getting the club promoted again, but if Shearer can work his magic, spend whatever little money he has wisely and the Magpies fly straight back into the top flight it would arguably give the club far stronger foundations financially.
Look, I'm clutching at straws to an extent. Nobody wants to be relegated, it would be horrible. Newcastle need to go to Aston Villa next weekend and all these players whose incomes I have highlighted need to pull something special out of the fire.
As unlikely as it seems after the performance against Fulham, it's not over yet, honest....
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Luke Edwards - is Chief Sports Writer of The Journal and uses his blog to give a unique and entertaining insight into events at Newcastle United and Sunderland.
Luke,
If there were an exodus along the lines you suggest, i can't see how United could bounce back in one year. Even if they did, the young and inexperience team they would bring to the Premiership in 2010 would certainly be hammered by the top4 and plenty of others on their way straight back down. now, i agree with some of the names in your departure lounge, but we'd need to hang on to a few more to augment Tayls, Carroll and the others.
If we could keep Bassong, Stevie Taylor, Guthrie and Carroll we'd have a decent spine running through the team. Add to that the likes of Kadar, Ranger, Doninger and LuaLua who'd be prominant figures in the side and a select few signings with real potential (Huseklepp from SK Brann?) and we'd have the numbers alright without spending much of the money from an ensuing firesale.
Then we'd need good coaches and to constantly work on their games; movement, passing and positioning in particular. Carver would be a good one to bring back, Money would have to be part of the first team for a while to pass on his knowledge of our young lads and perhaps even Gary Speed returning as a player/coach to come on in times of need. I'd also like to see a speed coach brought in after reading a great piece about Darren Campbell's work at Stoke. That role would involve working on running techniques which would lead to a reduction in hamstring and groin injuries as well as making players a little faster and keeping that pace for longer in their respective careers.
Then the money saved from the firesale could be used upon promotion to recruit players who'll provide experience but most of all consistancy to get the best out of the players around them. A fit Viduka-type would be great here and a cunning recruit like Fulham have done with Danny Murphy, and maybe another Abdoulaye Faye to add to the defensive ranks.
So done right relegation could actually be very good for us in the long term. My only concern is whether Mike Ashley has the vision or indeed the sense to ensure that happens if the worst does come to pass by Sunday evening.
We used to be a brilliant team to watch full of players that people didn't really feel any hatred towards. (i've never met anyone that loathes peter beardsley, les ferdinand, steve watson, phillipe albert or tino asprilla). We were a genuine threat to the league title in the days when Man utd really were at their glory supporter worst, but that was quickly replaced with sh*t football and a horrible team of arrogant playboys and openly deranged thugs. now, we're a joke, and the biggest punchline is relegation. To be honest, i saw Derek llambias and Mike Ashley cackling in the stand Saturday and I wanted us to go down.We must be the worst run club in the Premier league.No pace,no creativity,no back up full backs a pedestrain midfield and 4 managers in a season- 2 of whom had been away from the game for years(1 of whom with a heart problem),1 with no experience.6 in two years.When Shay Given wants out after more than a decade you know something is rotten in the state of Denmark
I thought Sky Ones Dream Team was unrealistic but barring assasinations fires and bush crashes I think we have had most of their storylines this season.This "We made mistakes" line that has been trotted out since after xmas- how much water that hold now that we have been driven into the ground. That 8 million or so profit they made in January,talk about penny wise and pound foolish.
By The way I noted Mike Ashley's minder mate clad in his new strip complete with shirt printing of "9" "Cockney Tosser".Need I say anymore?
What would be interesting to know is which of the players are still on long term contracts, reason i ask is because i have heard that there is no relegation clause in the players contracts, so which ones would just hang on and collect the money?
I have pondered this too Luke, technically it could be very good, although all Newcastle have to do is beat Aston Villa to stay up. Sunderland will no doubt lose to Chelsea meaning whatever Hull do against Man united is irrelevant. Lets send the Mackems down! I saw how much we all wanted to beat Boro and that is the only reason that i think we can manage another win.
Unlike Sunderland, Newcastle didn't bother planning for relegation by putting in such clauses so nobody's wages will drop should Newcastle drop, if you get me. Duff has another two years, Smith has two years, Barton has two years, maybe three, Geremi has one, Coloccini and Jonas have three and four. As far as I know, only Cacapa, Owen and Viduka's deals run out in the summer. Mind you, that saves almost £200,000-a-week in itself!
Does anyone really believe we can go to Villa and not lose? We really had better get used to relegation, because it's a certainty. I agree totally with Danny - we have become figures of hate, due to a combination of bad signings (Bowyer, Barton), bad PR, and Ashley's world-class inability to run a football club. Our only hope is to give Shearer time; if he can build a team that can get us back in the Premiership after one year, there is a chance that his status would be able to attract some good players once we're back. Regardless of anything, we need STABILITY!
Luke
I have never read such GARBAGE in my life. Have you completely lost the plot? You said "the Championship might not be such a bad thing. Lots of different grounds to visit, new teams to begrudgingly admire or despise, the whole thing could be a refreshing change." Are you sick???
You claim in your other article that the whole first team squad will be sold, with Newcastle the 'prize scalp' and there is no likelihood Shearer will stay. So we turn back to Kinnear and trade the defeats against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool for embarrassments against the likes of Plymouth Argyle & Doncaster Rovers. No thank you!
Please take a reality check, why on earth do we have to get relegated to get shot of the deadwood. If we stay up Shearer may be persuaded to stay and if he does I AM TOTALLY CONFIDENT he will get shot of the deadwood and rebuild sensibly, without scum like Barton. Luke, please, please do not revert to writing such drivel, be sensible for God's sake.
The only good thing that would come out or relegation would be the financial loss incurred by Ashley, hitting him where it hurts for the way he has devalued our club ..... and you know it could not happen to a more deserved individual!
I never said anything about Alan Shearer leaving. I believe he will stay whatever division Newcastle are in. I was trying to put a positive spin on a desperate situation Al, pointing out that if it was for just one season and one season only with an immediate return to the Premier League, would the Championship really be that objectionable? You obviously think it would!
Luke,
I did not imply that you said Shearer was going to leave if we get relegated. It was indeed your Journal colleague Mark Douglas who wrote that Iain Dowie – "has also warned supporters not to “presume” that boss Alan Shearer is definitely taking over in the long-term in the summer."
If your earlier article 'First-team squad expected to be sold if NUFC get relegated' is predicated on any fact than can you realistically see Shearer wanting to stay to rebuild from nothing?
Of course it is a desperate situation and I do not think you have done anything positive to the Newcastle cause to try and put a 'spin' on relegation maybe not being that bad! It will be an unmitigated disaster if we go down, no more, no less and you cannot dress it up any other way. I am just trying to put a pragmatic and realistic perspective on this desperate situation.
Luke, please reflect that it has not happened yet and I clearly have more faith than you because, after watching the mackems implode against Portsmouth after going ahead, I cannot see them getting anything off Chelsea. Furthermore, we have already beaten Villa 2 - 0 this season, when they were arguably playing at their best having won 6 and drawn 2 of their previous 10 Premiership games. If you look at their record now they have only won 1 of their last 10 games (against Hull) having drawn 4 & lost 5. For me that gives us real hope, why can we not get something at Villa? That is the sort of factual, accurate encouragement you should be writing about and not spouting how it may not be that bad going down. I'm sorry Luke but you are doing NUFC a disservice!
Luke,
I really am concerned at the direction of your recent reporting. If Newcastle do get relegated (and I do not think they will) you will have a multitude of opportunities to put 'spin' on a dreadful situation. You can tell me "Told you so" but right now we do not need to read it! That is not helpful Journalism for your local readers!
Shearer and Dowie have both said how confidence is the crucial difference to winning & losing and there is sufficient evidence to give cause for some belief that Newcastle can pull off a great escape at Villa Park. Looking further at Villa's record immediately prior to playing Newcastle earlier in the season, they won 6, drew 2 (one against Liverpool) & lost 2 (one of those defeats was against Chelsea) an excellent set of results before losing 2-0 to Newcastle.
Villa no longer have anything to play for, as their Europa place is guaranteed. This may explain why their recent performances have only brought one single win in 10 games, scraping through 1-0 against Hull. We may have felt we were stuffed off Liverpool going down 3-0 but Villa got beat 5-0.
May I plead with you to write positively about Newcastle for 4 more days, that's all and based on facts not hype or spin. You have the platform to build confidence, as well as destroy it. I am sure Alan Shearer will make sure the players realise they truly have a chance but you can help the fans have belief - the ball is in your court!
I sort of agree with you, Luke.
For the past 5 years now I've seen this club struggle we had one good run under Roeder when he was caretaker manager but the season was pretty terrible on the whole, we've got far too many players that appear to not care about the club and any mass clear out would probably be better done in the Championship than in the Premiership, mainly because some won't want to leave while we are in the top flight.
If Shearer can get rid of them and fill the team with bright young British based players then the short term pain will be worth the long term gain, I can honestly sit here and say apart from a select few I haven't got the time of day for 90% of our squad which is a sad state for any supporter of a football club.
Some fans will walk out on the club but I can see a situation similar to when Sunderland went down in that if we start winning every week even if it is in the championship then the fans will come back.