The Big Four Might Not Be So Big After All
Sunderland have every right to be proud of their new found status as the scourge of the Big Four, but are the Black Cats just part of a wider trend which is finally challenging the pre-eminence of the Champions League clique?
While Steve Bruce's side have taken an impressive seven points from their four games against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United so far this season, they are not the only ones who have given them a fright.
Of course, every team is going to suffer the odd scare or setback over the course of the season, no matter how good you are and I would still put my mortgage - if I had one and didn't rent - on one of the four teams above lifting the Premier League trophy in May.
But I would also suggest that one of them, possibly even two, will find themselves pushed out of the Champions League places this season which has huge ramifications and may finally lead to a long overdue shift in English football's balance of power.
If Arsenal or Liverpool finish outside of the top four it could start a decline which could take years to reverse as their best players are sold to balance the books.
Indeed, if Liverpool, with their debt and wage bill, failed to qualify for the Champions League whose to say it would not lead them going into administration given the problems their American owners already have with loan repayments and such?
Sunderland are not going to be one of the clubs who shatter that monopoly, even if they have the best record of any team in the top flight against that group of teams this season.
But Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa will go into the busy Festive season knowing they are closer than ever to getting a grip on a Champions League place.
From a personal point of view, created through a mixture of old prejudices and jealousy, I hope it is Aston Villa who do it. Martin O'Neill is a fantastic manager and they have done it the old fashioned way,as it were, creating an excellent team with clever recruitment and good coaching, without spending vast sums of money.
Manchester City are just trying to buy success - I think it will all go wrong there given the "characters" in the dressing room and the impatience of the owners - and there is just something which irritates me about Spurs.
Nothing I've ever managed to put my finger on, maybe it's Harry Redknapp, maybe it's because I went to school with a lot of Tottenham fans, anyway, moving on. Ultimately, though, I'd prefer to see any of them in the Champions League next season than the same old four.
It is for the good of English football in my opinion because, let's face it, we're all getting a little bored of the same four teams winning everything year after year after year. It is a self-perpetuating elite which might not be able to bask in that status for too much longer.
As for Sunderland, Europe remains a real possibility and that would be a tremendous achievement for the club given where it was only a few months ago.
The appointment of Bruce has been an inspired one and he is looking a better manager by the week. He has done brilliantly in the transfer market and, if he can add a couple more to the squad in January - which I feel he has to if Sunderland are going to maintain their excellent start - then the Black Cats might just need their passports for more than a summer holiday in 2010.
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Luke Edwards - is Chief Sports Writer of The Journal and uses his blog to give a unique and entertaining insight into events at Newcastle United and Sunderland.
Luke, I believe you are essentially correct that there are the beginnings of a shift in power in the premier league. Liverpool are without doubt the team most likely to slide out of the top four slots, and probably totally out of the European places to boot. My view is that the next team with most sliding potential is Man Utd. A few teams now have figured out how to play them at a time when Giggs is finally losing his edge. Probably it will take one more season before the cracks really start to show and they start to rebuild under a new manager. Ferguson has undoubtedly already won his last trophy and they are headed for a Liverpool style barren spell. Your picks for teams most likely to be Liverpool’s replacement is suspect. I don't see Spurs keeping it up much longer, even though they demolished Wigan so convincingly yesterday. It was pathetic opposition and 5 of their goals were off-side or lucky. Villa might also slump after Christmas, as they did last year. They are not a sodden heavy pitch team. Man City are my pick to be the new top four side. I fully agree that a couple more astute buys will enable Steve Bruce to guide Sunderland to a European place. My prediction of standings at the end of the season is:
1. Chelsea, 2. Arsenal, 3. Man Utd, 4. Man City, 5. Sunderland, 6. Villa, 7. Surs, 8. Liverpool. Relegation: 18. Bolton, 19. Burnly, 20. Hull.
Promoted: 1. WBA, 2. Forest, and Cardiff via playoffs. The Toon will not make the playoffs.
Cups: European - Chelsea, Carling - Chelsea, and FA - Sunderland.
Other: it will be goodbye top Darlo and Pools in mid-table.
Evidently, our dear friend M. Sebastien T. here does not follow the Championship. Given his analysis of the BPL, I doubt he watches much of the Premiership too.
It's still early days and the top four usually have the knowhow at the business end of the season. It might be closer this year but I still think it will be the same 4.
(Luke - you should really get yourself a mortgage, renting is "dead money".)
I know what you mean about Spurs. I don't like them either, but I think it's because of their wide boy 'Chaz & Dave' type fans.
Unfortunately though, I believe they will be best placed to take Liverpool's scalp and finish 4th. Arsenal are not firing properly yet, but I pity the team they play when everything clicks, so they'll be fine. I hope Man. City fail miserably and I wish Villa all the best, because I like their style and they have some brilliant players.
I hate Chelsea with a passion, but think they're the only team that'll win the league this year.
It's usually sad to see an English team lose in Europe, but I had to laugh at Steven Gerrard crying last night. Perhaps it's karma for him using his status to wriggle out of a jail sentence. Ultimately I think that will cost Rafa Benitez his job.
Great article Luke. I see that we seem to share (as does LLF) similar predjudices in respect to Spurs, City, Villa etc. I too would love to see MON do the job for Villa though I do think that Citeh are the most likely to squeeze in in place of the mighty reds.
As for Sunderland's performance I am just so happy to see them starting to compete. I certainly don't share MST's confidence above though I would like a pint of whatever he is on.
However as I said in one of your blogs a while ago all I wanted to see this season was for Sunderland to actually start to compete in individual games with the big teams as indeed the mags used to do. In recent seasons it has been embaressing going into such games with everything crossed just hoping not to get stuffed by 5 or 6.
For me the most important thing now is to enjoy it. Without having a dig at the mags who have been through enough there was a sense that they never stopped to enjoy the success they were having and getting to the top of the pile was the only thing that would do. As a Sunderland fan, often in the Championship, I remember just thinking if only we could get in the premiership, stay in the premiership and compete how good would that be. If SB can bring us on every year for the next few years then that will suit me.
And hopefully SAF will leave Man United too soon for them to consider him as their next boss. He wouldn't get the job right now but if he continues to perform as he has this season......