So What Happens If Newcastle Do Go Up?
Dare I do it? Do I risk falling flat on my face into a big pile of rotten eggs? Yeah, alright, I will do. No point being safe and boring all the time is there!
Presuming Newcastle United go up - and we cannot presume anything at the moment despite that wonderful 6-1 thrashing of Barnsley at the weekend - how many members of this squad would you definitely keep in the Premier League?
It's a difficult question and so much will depend on the amount of money there is to spend on new players in the summer.
My estimate would be anything between £25-20m, although I must add that is not a figure which has been suggested to me by anyone at the club. That's just what I reckon.
An educated guess, if you like, rather than a wild stab in the dark, but a guess nonetheless. There will be money to spend, but it isn't going to be as large a transfer kitty as some would want given the difficulty in staying up after promotion from the Championship.
If promotion is worth £50m to the club, as most money experts seem to think, Mike Ashley will probably make around half of that available to Chris Hughton to spend on players.
I should add, this is what I think he should make available. In a perfect world - and we've never had one of those at St James' Park - all £50m will be spent on improving the squad, but that isn't going to happen.
There are debts which need to be paid to the bank in terms of reducing the working overdraft and I wonder whether Ashley may also take back some of the £25m he has put in this year to cover the cost of relegation.
At the moment they show up on the books as interest free loans, which may mean they are repayable, or they may just mean he will take them back if and when he tries to sell the club.
However, that wasn't the case in the summer regarding the £110m he previously invested to clear the debts from the Freddie Shepherd era so I don't know if he is willing to really just write that money off as collateral damage. Time will tell and questions will need to be asked at the end of the season.
I suspect he will want some of the money back, perhaps around £15-10m, with the other £10m or so used to cover the increase in wages that will come with a return to the Premier League. Again, this is educated guess work, not fact.
So if we say £25m, that's not too bad, not great, but it at least gives Hughton some money to work with to strengthen the side with extra raised from player sales.
For me, these players are untouchable: Steve Harper, Steven Taylor, Jose Enrique, Jonas Gutierrez, Wayne Routledge, Andy Carroll and Alan Smith.
These players are desirable to keep: Tim Krul, Fabricio Coloccini, Mike Williamson, Danny Simpson, Joey Barton, Peter Lovenkrands, Shola Ameobi, Danny Guthrie and Kevin Nolan.
I've kind of covered myself here in many respects, although the point is, of the second list I'd say all could be sold if the right money comes in for them and better options can be found.
Not much of a reward for promotion and more will stay than go, but such is the life of the professional footballer. They move on when they want so they can be shipped out when the club wants!
As for those who don't even make it on to the list, Nicky Butt and Fabrice Pancrate are out of contract and I doubt they will be offered extensions, Fitz Hall is only on loan, while I'd send Nile Ranger, Tamas Kadar and Ryan Donaldson out on loan to Championship clubs rather than sell them.
So that leaves £25m, plus sales, to sign two strikers, a left-back a right-back, possibly a centre back, another right winger and a central midfielder who can actually run a bit!
Hmmm, over to you Chris, once promotion is guaranteed, obviously, because if Newcastle don't go up it's pretty safe to assume nobody will be untouchable in the summer!
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Luke Edwards - is Chief Sports Writer of The Journal and uses his blog to give a unique and entertaining insight into events at Newcastle United and Sunderland.
Luke - did you not see Llambias's comments last week? Only 1 or 2 additions to the squad will be required!!!!!
What is it with Smith being untouchable? Can you please give me your verdict of him this season Luke.
I've said this before, what does he bring to the team apart from "passion" (which can easily be misled as aggressive)
One or two additions won't be enough and I'm sure Chris Hughton will realise this. As we know Llambias is the "pie anc chips" man so maybe he shouldn't bother predicting what the squad needs!
As for Smith, I thought that might be the one to cause a bit of debate but i just think Newcastle look a far more secure side when he is in it, something they are going to need to be in the PL. I'd just tell him to do a Makelele job, ie sit in front of the back four and rarely, if ever, venture beyond the halfway line, allowing two wingers and an attacking midfielder to get forward. Just my idea....
Most important part of the close season will be bringing in someone who can create goals, a Mikel Arteta, an old fashioned playmaker. I actually dont think the squad is too bad, there is the spine of a decent PL side there, however we are going to have to bring in a expensive striker. Scoring goals in the Championship is one thing, but do we really think AC and PL will smash them as regularly in the PL? Leon Best has to go, that was always money wasted in my view, as does Ameobi, he's useless.
I really hope we dont blow it now, if they could string another 3 wins together from the next three matches, I think we'd nearly be there. Forest have a tough run in, but WBA'a looks on paper to be easy
One thing has come out of going down, we've been able to buy CCC players for realistic prices, as in the past if a PL club tried their prices were massively inflated, hense the amount of foreign players coming in -ok and most of them aren't up to standard but in turn inflates the value of those who are. all we need now is to bring more of our young players through.
Luke,
Llambias has already said that the big money days are over. I class £25m as big money - So too does Ashley considering we have never spent anywhere near that under his ownership.
Look at the first team - We don't have a proven PL goalscorer - Our midfield is that slow that playing against the PL boys will make them look like they have calipers on - Our defence still conceed chances in the Championship, there just not taken. They will be in PL.
Yo-Yo club - That's it for us under Ashley.
We could be the first club in history to get relegated while making a profit of £25m.
You are all talking as if promotion is more-or-less a certainty - a bit presumptious I think. 3 of our next 4 games are away and then we play Forest at home. If we are still 8 points or so clear of 3rd place after that lot then fair enough, but in the meantime I hope the players aren't thinking we're already there.
Howay the lads.
Mal - promotion is in the bag.
Luke - Smith can't tackle, its like asking ME to do a Makalele job, i have the passiona nd desire, but i'm rubbish.
He can't pass, score, tackle, stand on his feet. He makes our entire team play negatively.
Just my idea...
Luke,
I think you've called it pretty accurately in terms of the current squad. I personally would no retain Ameobi, but i would rely on Kevin Nolan as a "steady soldier" in the PL. I suppose that means that the team would look something like: (bench in brackets)
Harper (Krul)
Taylor, Coloccini, ANO, Enrique, (Williamson, Simpson)
Smith, Nolan, Gutierrez, Routledge (Barton, Guthrie)
Carroll, Lovenkrands (ANO x2)
I can't see that team threatening too many of the top 10 in the PL, but if the defence holds up and the two wingers can keep their form, then it might form the basis for survival....
The only reasonable thing to do isn't to make judgements right now. Stock should be taken at the end of the season of who has offered what to the cause. Those who've kept their heads down, worked their socks off and produced when it matters should be given the opportunity to have a crack at the Premiership, no matter what their 'status' as a player may be. Those who have been a let down should expect to go, because if you can't produce in the Champ, you aren't going to cut it in the Prem.
I wasn't a fan of Peter Lovenkrands, for example, but he really has shown something, so I think he deserves a go. If Andy Carroll carries on scoring and stops punching people in bars, he deserves to keep his place too. I suspect Kevin Nolan may be found out back in the Prem, but you can't argue with his contribution in the Champ, so he has to play too.
Smith is a doubt. He's been pretty erratic, and still can't seem to calm himself, even when wearing the armband. I worry for him. I'd like to see Joey Barton leave as well, because he's a 'unreconstructed w**ker', as Tony Blair would've put it. Pancake isn't up to it, and Nicky Butt will almost certainly be leaving.
Stevie Harper deserves to finally own the Number 1 shirt in the Prem. No doubts there (Harper for England!). I worry about some of the 'Championship' signings in the Prem as well. Leon Best...let's give him 'til the end of the season to show what he's got, but he doesn't look good enough.
Still, everyone deserves our support until the end of the season (with the possible exception of Joey Barton), and we should judge the players by their efforts at the end of the season, not now...